US inflation fell to 2.8% in February, but blockchain data suggests it may be even lower at 1.32%. As the Federal Reserve holds rates steady, alternative inflation tracking raises questions about economic trends.
CPI Shows Inflation Cooling, But Real-Time Data Tells a Different Story
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February fell to 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9%. This marks continued progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, raising questions about the pace of economic recovery.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also edged lower to 3.1%, down from 3.2%. This is the first time since July 2024 that both headline and Core CPI have declined together, signaling easing inflationary pressures. Despite the cooling data, markets remain skeptical of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing a 99% probability that the central bank will maintain current interest rates.
Blockchain Data Shows Even Lower Inflation
While official CPI numbers indicate inflation is moderating, alternative data sources suggest an even sharper decline. Truflation, a blockchain-based inflation tracker, estimates real U.S. inflation at 1.32%, significantly lower than the BLS figures. Truflation aggregates real-time data from e-commerce sites, government sources, and financial markets, offering a more dynamic view of price trends.
This discrepancy highlights the growing role of decentralized financial metrics in economic analysis. As policymakers weigh their next steps, some experts argue that blockchain-driven inflation indicators could provide a more accurate reflection of economic conditions.
Fed Holds Firm on Rates Despite Inflation Drop
Despite the CPI’s downward trend, the Federal Reserve appears committed to maintaining its restrictive monetary policy until inflation shows consistent stability. With markets overwhelmingly expecting no rate cuts in the near term, investors are closely watching future inflation reports for signs of a shift.
As the debate over inflation measurement continues, consumers and businesses alike are left navigating an uncertain economic landscape. Stay informed and track inflation trends with real-time data to make better financial decisions.
